Weekly roundup

Articles and reports from the past week
“US seeks momentum with NPR, START ahead of NPT Review Conference”
The new US Nuclear Posture Review, the first to be fully unclassified, makes the following declarations:

“The fundamental role of U.S. nuclear weapons, which will continue as long as nuclear weapons exist, is to deter nuclear attack on the United States, our allies, and partners.”

“[T]he United States will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states that are party to the NPT and in compliance with their nuclear non-proliferation obligations”

Although the NPR declares Iran to be in “non-compliance with non-proliferation norms”, key questions remain over how to determine “compliance with…non-proliferation obligations” and Iran’s nuclear status, and the nature of the non-“fundamental” purposes of US nuclear weapons are unspecified (Examiner, Guardian).
However, some analysts argue the NPR and the newly signed START follow-on treaty give the US momentum and political credibility ahead of this month’s US Nuclear Security Summit and the May NPT Review Conference (Council on Foreign Relations).

“P5+1 press ahead with sanctions meeting”
The UN ambassadors of the P5+1 states met to discuss UNSC sanctions against Iran (BBC). China, while reiterating its call for continued dialogue, has confirmed it will participate in relevant discussions (Associated Press). Russian President Medvedev stated that he had “outlined [Russia’s] limits on sanctions” in discussions with US President Obama, and any new sanctions are expected to target Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (Guardian).
Iran restated its willingness to negotiate a nuclear fuel swap on Iranian territory (Reuters).

“Israel reaffirms nuclear policy amid growing attention to undeclared arsenal”
Israel has reaffirmed its policy of deliberate ambiguity over its undeclared nuclear arsenal (Global Security Newswire). The comments came as Israel moves ahead with plans to develop new civilian nuclear reactors despite challenges in finding international partners due to its status outside the NPT (ISN).
Prime Minister Netanyahu has reversed his decision to attend the US Nuclear Security Summit reportedly after learning Egypt and Turkey would call on Israel to sign the NPT, though US commentators believe the real reason is tensions with the US over settlements in East Jerusalem (Politico).

“Can the CIA sabotage Iran’s nuclear project?” (Agence France-Presse)
Dan De Luce writes that Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri’s defection has renewed speculation over CIA efforts to sabotage Iran’s nuclear efforts, though it remains unclear how much intelligence Amiri can provide. Covert US efforts have involved drawing human resources out of Iran and introducing faulty components into Iran’s nuclear supply chain.

“Khamenei supports Ahmadinejad’s campaign for more subsidy cuts”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has voiced his support for President Ahmadinejad’s continued campaign to cut $40 billion in state subsidies on gasoline and other basic goods (New York Times). The parliament approved a $20-billion cut in January. The cuts could reduce Iran’s vulnerability to international sanctions on gasoline imports, though officials continue to insist that sanctions would be ineffective (Associated Press).

“Israel calls for more attention to intercepted Iranian arms shipment”

“Israel calls for more attention to intercepted Iranian arms shipment”
November 5-7, 2009
     Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged world leaders to focus on Israel’s interception of a shipment reportedly carrying 36 containers of weapons from Iran headed to Hezbollah (see video here) (United Press International). The unprecedented seizure of 320 tons of arms on the Francop could be a “propaganda coup” for Israel as it faces pressure over the Goldstone report, which was endorsed by the UN General Assembly (Al Jazeera). Israel says that undisclosed cargo certificates had been stamped at an Iranian port of origin, but Syria, Iran and Hezbollah have denied the claims (BBC).
     Amos Harel argues that the “lukewarm” international response to the news of the seizure indicates that Israel’s security concerns are being sidelined by the US in favor of negotiations with Iran (Haaretz). Spiegel reports that there was “unease” among German officials as the Francop belongs to a German shipping company, although it is leased to a Cyprus-based firm. Another German-owned ship was recently intercepted with a smaller cache of arms [previously covered here] in an “embarrassing” affair for Germany (Spiegel).
United Press International | Al Jazeera | BBC | Haaretz | Spiegel

“Russia’s ‘double game’ on the Iranian nuclear issue”

“Russia’s ‘double game’ on the Iranian nuclear issue”
September 4-10, 2009
     Barak Ravid reports that China and Russia rejected proposals for additional sanctions against Iran during last week’s meeting of the P5+1 states [previously covered here]. The remaining states agreed that EU sanctions would likely be necessary given the unlikelihood of UNSC sanctions (Haaretz). Later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that negotiations and diplomacy were the only solutions (Xinhua) and, in a critique of other P5+1 members, described accusations that the IAEA is withholding evidence against Iran [previously covered here] as “unacceptable” (RIA Novosti).
     William Tobey believes that Russia, while concerned about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, hopes international tensions will continue to boost arms sales to Iran and raise the price of oil, another source of export revenue. Tobey adds that the Iranian nuclear issue also enables Russia to maintain some of its waning influence in the Middle East and extract concessions from the US on issues such as missile defense and arms control. Tobey argues that contrary to Russia’s calculations, the Iranian nuclear issue will strengthen NATO and make missile defense deployments more likely as states turn to the US for leadership and protection (Foreign Policy).
     Lavrov denied a recent report that Israel and Russia worked to stop a cargo ship carrying Russian S-300 air defense missiles bound for Iran (Agence France-Presse). Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently visited Russia to continue efforts to stop the sale of S-300 missiles to Iran [previously covered here] (Haaretz (2)).
Haaretz | Xinhua | RIA Novosti | Foreign Policy | Agence France-Presse | Haaretz (2)

“IAEA report could convince Russia, China to support sanctions”

“IAEA report could convince Russia, China to support sanctions”
August 29-31, 2009
     The P5+1 nations will hold high-level talks in Germany on Wednesday to discuss Iran’s nuclear program (Reuters) ahead of a ministerial meeting scheduled for later this month. Louis Charbonneau writes that the IAEA’s latest Iran report [previously covered here] will be central to Western efforts to convince Russia and China to approve a fourth round of UN sanctions against Iran. Some Western analysts are skeptical that Russia and China will change their positions despite the IAEA’s critical report, but French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner stated that he believes the sanctions will be accepted (Reuters (2)).
     In an analysis emphasizing instances of Iranian cooperation cited by the IAEA report, Howard LaFranchi writes that the report could complicate efforts to implement more sanctions. LaFranchi suggests that Iran may be hoping that its increased cooperation with IAEA inspectors at the Natanz enrichment site will prevent China and Russia from supporting sanctions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that if the UN is unable to pass new sanctions, a “coalition of the willing” could do so without a UNSC decision (Christian Science Monitor).
Reuters | Reuters (2) | Christian Science Monitor