Weekly roundup

Articles and reports from the past week
“Turkey, Brazil step up mediation efforts ahead of visits to Tehran”
Turkey is hoping to host a meeting between Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. Both parties have expressed interest. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and Brazilian President Lula da Silva will visit Tehran this week (Daily Star, Zaman).
Paulo Sotero argues that despite domestic opposition, da Silva is risking Brazil’s international reputation to build his own personal legacy ahead of the end of his presidential term (Foreign Policy).

“Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities: a net assessment”
A new IISS assessment of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities concludes that Iran would likely need at least 4 years to deploy missiles capable of targeting Western Europe and more than a decade to target the US east coast (Reuters). The authors also argue that the missile program is not suited to conventional, biological or chemical warfare (Guardian).
A US Department of Defense assessment last month stated that with sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could develop and test an ICBM capable of reaching the US by 2015 (Department of Defense). Yousaf Butt argues that US strategy focusing on missile defense systems is not only ineffective but “dangerous and destabilizing” (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists).

“Iran nuclear standoff persists after dinner meeting, U.S. says” (Global Security Newswire)
US officials state that last week’s dinner attended by diplomats from Iran and the UNSC states did not resolve tensions and shows that Iran is concerned about new UN sanctions .

Weekly roundup

Articles and reports from the past week
“US media hyping Iranian nuclear threat”
Scott Lucas strongly criticizes a recent New York Times report claiming that Western intelligence agencies believe Iran is planning two new nuclear sites. The same edition of the Times also features an article on the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran, and Lucus criticizes the juxtaposition as “dangerous journalism” designed to gain support for military action against Iran (Enduring America).
Glenn Greenwald criticizes Fox News coverage of an unclassified US intelligence report. The intelligence report states that Iran expanded its nuclear infrastructure in 2009 and is “keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons…if a decision is made to do so”, but Fox claims the report concludes Iran is working toward a nuclear weapon (Salon).

“Questioning Turkey’s ability to mediate Iran issue”
The National reports that Turkish officials are becoming frustrated with Iran’s inability to offer solutions to resolve the nuclear issue (The National). Zaman suggests that, due to traditional rivalry and Turkey’s close relations with Arab states, it is not clear whether Iran trusts Turkey enough to act as a mediator (Zaman).
David Kenner writes that Turkey, despite its strong rhetoric of independence in regional issues, is more a “developing power caught between two stronger poles” and will ultimately side with its Western allies if pressed (Foreign Policy).

“US and Iran courting China ahead of sanctions vote”
The New York Times outlines recent tensions and thaws in US-China relations, including China’s move toward supporting UN sanctions against Iran (New York Times). While US President Obama spoke with Chinese President Hu Jintao for an hour to discuss ties, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili visited Beijing to speak against sanctions and call for continued international negotiations (Wall Street Journal).

“Iran nuclear scientist defects to US in CIA ‘intelligence coup’” (ABC News)
ABC News reports that Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri, who disappeared last year, defected to the US in an “intelligence coup” for the CIA. Iran had accused the US of abducting Amiri, while the US denied any involvement [previously covered here].

“IAEA Chief: Iran sanctions will make life hard for agency” (German Press Agency)
In an interview, IAEA chief Yukiya Amano stated that sanctions against Iran would make the efforts of nuclear inspectors more difficult in the short term. Amano added that Iran had yet to provide an adequate response regarding several outstanding issues.

“Tokyo hoping to mediate between key partners Washington, Tehran”

“Tokyo hoping to mediate between key partners Washington, Tehran”
February 1-18, 2010
     Earlier this month, Laura Rozen reported that Japan and Iran have been holding high-level talks on a possible Japanese role in hosting a nuclear fuel swap. With Japan’s behind-the-scenes efforts proving unsuccessful, the US is pushing for Japanese support in a UNSC vote for sanctions (Politico). In December, Japan’s ambassador to Iran Akio Shirota told Iranian MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi that Japan is ready to expand bilateral cooperation in various fields, including nuclear energy, while in Tokyo, Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada urged Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili to cooperate with the US. Last month, Shirota invited Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani to visit Tokyo.
     In an op-ed on Thursday, former Japanese diplomat Yoshiki Mine argues that Japan, with its experience using nuclear energy, should help Iran take measures to gain the trust of other global actors over its nuclear program. Mine writes that Japan, as the largest importer of Iranian oil and a state positioned “outside the framework of mutual mistrust” between Iran and the West, can make Iran understand the need to cooperate with IAEA inspectors. Mine argues that such Japan-Iran cooperation should involve discussions at the Cabinet level focusing exclusively on the nuclear issue (Mainichi Shimbun).
Politico | Mainichi Shimbun (Feb. 18, morning edition)

“Arab analysts see Iran’s regional ambitions behind Syria-Iraq feud”

“Arab analysts see Iran’s regional ambitions behind Syria-Iraq feud”
September 1-8, 2009
     Several Arab analysts believe that Iran is pleased by the ongoing feud between Iraq and Syria. Tariq Alhomayed suggests Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s escalatory rhetoric against Damascus may be part of an Iranian effort to punish Damascus for indicating a readiness to improve relations with the US and Israel (Asharq Alawsat). Alhomayed also writes that Tehran’s main regional priority is now controlling Iraq even at the expense of “losing” Damascus to the US or Egypt (Asharq Alawsat (2)). Marc Lynch also notes similar analyses by other Arab analysts and argues that it is too early to say that recent US outreach to Syria has failed (Foreign Policy). Mostafa Zein writes that Damascus opposes Tehran’s plans to dominate Iraq (Dar Al Hayat).
     Iranian official Saeed Jalili, who also serves as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, stated that Tehran was determined to mediate between its two “friends” (Tehran Times).
Asharq Alawsat | Asharq Alawsat (2) | Foreign Policy | Dar Al Hayat | Tehran Times

“No signs of Iranian flexibility on nuclear program”

“No signs of Iranian flexibility on nuclear program”
September 2, 2009, Interview with George Perkovich
     In an interview, George Perkovich argues that while the US has made clear its desire to engage in nuclear talks, Iran has yet to demonstrate any willingness to negotiate and make compromises. Attributing recent indications of Iran’s readiness to resume talks to increased pressure from the P5+1 and decreased confidence on the Iranian side, Perkovich remains skeptical of Iran’s intentions and criticizes Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili for being uncooperative during past discussions. Regarding the IAEA’s report that Iran has reduced the number of active centrifuges [previously covered here], Perkovich believes the gesture was designed to enable China and Russia to withhold support for tougher measures against Iran.
     Perkovich opposes possible sanctions targeting Iran’s gasoline imports [previously covered here], reasoning that such measures would only allow Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to profit from smuggling, and strongly argues that any sanctions must be imposed by the UNSC in order to delegitimize Iran’s nuclear drive. Perkovich also calls for the US to ratify the CTBT as a measure to prevent any potential Iranian nuclear tests.
Council on Foreign Relations

“The Making of an Iran Policy”

“The Making of an Iran Policy”
July 30, 2009, Analysis by Roger Cohen
     Roger Cohen outlines the issues facing the Barack Obama administration in implementing its policy of engaging Iran in the aftermath of Iran’s controversial June elections. Obama’s strategy of engagement has pressured Tehran to reciprocate, and Cohen says one indicator of Tehran’s willingness to talk will be whether Saeed Jalili, a “chief architect” of the crackdown on domestic opposition, remains chief nuclear negotiator. Some Iranian analysts have suggested to officials including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Khamenei who has praised Obama, lead talks with the US. However, Obama’s efforts have been undermined not only by the post-election controversy but also by Khamenei’s alignment with President Ahmadinejad. Cohen argues that Tehran is “in no position to talk right now” as the regime struggles to maintain its hold on power.
     In Washington, although Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joseph Biden have sought a harder line, Cohen writes that Obama is driving Iran policy and that Clinton’s role is “clearly ancillary”. Cohen identifies Dennis Ross, a senior White House advisor, as a key player in Obama’s Iran strategy. Originally assigned to the State Department, where his role was marginalized by Clinton and Undersecretary of State William Burns, Ross is known for his ties with the American Jewish community and for advocating some hawkish measures against Iran. Cohen writes Ross’ promotion to the National Security Council neatly removed Ross from direct involvement in any potential bilateral talks with Iran.
     The US also faces difficulties in uniting Arab allies as well as China and Russia against Iran. While sanctions remain a “back end” solution if engagement fails, Obama hopes to exploit Tehran’s current weakness by isolating Iran through pragmatic outreach to Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas as well as talks of upgrading the defenses of regional allies. Finally, Cohen argues that an Israeli strike against Iran, which Ross believes is a distinct possibility, is Obama’s “least-favored outcome”, indicating that Obama may ultimately settle for a policy of deterrence against a nuclear Iran. Cohen also mentions that the US could try to prevent an Israeli strike by implementing an existing covert program aimed at disrupting Iran’s nuclear supply chain and undermining its computer systems.
New York Times Magazine

Related posts:
“Syrian-Saudi summit, US ‘power play’ efforts aim to isolate Iran”
“Dennis Ross contradicts Obama, may face resignation”

Click here for an exclusive Simons Centre interview conducted in April 2008 with Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei