“How a nuclear Iran fits in the grand strategies of the US, China and Russia”

“How a nuclear Iran fits in the grand strategies of the US, China and Russia”
February 9-16, 2010
     The US continues to indicate its move toward a harder line against Iran, with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warning that Iran is moving toward a “military dictatorship” and claiming that Russia has agreed to support sanctions. John Vinocur believes Russia has timed its policy shift to take advantage of the Obama administration’s vulnerability on the Iranian nuclear issue and the unconcluded START treaty. Citing Russia’s newly released military doctrine (I, II, III), Vinocur speculates that Russia’s quid pro quo for cooperation on Iran involves restrictions on NATO expansion and US military defenses in Europe (New York Times).
     US Vice President Joseph Biden stated that he also expects China’s cooperation on sanctions, but Matthew Kroenig believes China and Russia see a nuclear Iran as a potential strategic asset for constraining US power in the Middle East. Kroenig argues that Chinese and Russian concern with the need to compensate for their own lack of power projection ability outweighs their economic interests in Iran or concern over nuclear proliferation. According to Kroenig, the US’ primary concern regarding proliferation is not preventing nuclear terrorism or nuclear war but maintaining its freedom to threaten or use force abroad (The New Republic).
New York Times | The New Republic

Additional link: “Military Doctrine and the Principles of State Nuclear Deterrence Policy to 2020” (original Russian version) (Kremlin)


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