“Considering deterrence, extended deterrence as options against nuclear Iran”

“Considering deterrence, extended deterrence as options against nuclear Iran”
August 12-26, 2009
     In a special series on the Iranian nuclear issue, Mike Shuster writes that in light of the difficulties of preventive war demonstrated in the Iraq War, nuclear deterrence may become a central component of US policy toward a nuclear-armed Iran. Several US analysts argue that the US and Israel could deter Iran from launching nuclear attacks or providing nuclear weapons to its regional proxies, but Gary Milhollin points out that a nuclear capability will nevertheless enable Iran to project more power in the region and increase the risk of strategic miscalculations leading to armed conflict (National Public Radio).
     Shuster also discusses the possibility of US extended deterrence in the Middle East, which was recently alluded to by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton [previously covered here], as a measure not only to protect Arab allies but to prevent further proliferation should Iran obtain a nuclear weapon. Joshua Pollack notes that not only could a nuclear umbrella for Arab allies entangle the US in an unwanted regional nuclear conflict, Iran and Syria could capitalize on the situation to foment popular criticism against Arab leaders for relying on the US (National Public Radio (2)).
     David Axe details Israel’s July deployment of 3 warships into the Red Sea and acquisition of 2 new nuclear submarines, arguing that Israel is preparing for preemptive strikes against Iran while boosting its nuclear deterrent in the event that such strikes fail (World Politics Review). Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has declared that Egypt will not join any US nuclear umbrella, stating that the presence of foreign troops in Egypt and the implicit acceptance of Iran as a nuclear power are unacceptable (Global Security Newswire).
National Public Radio | National Public Radio (2) | World Politics Review | Global Security Newswire