“Repeated resetting of nuclear clock hurting credibility of Israel, US intelligence”

“Repeated resetting of nuclear clock hurting credibility of Israel, US intelligence”
August 19, 2009
     Gal Beckerman criticizes Israeli and US officials for repeatedly pushing back their intelligence estimates of when Iran would produce a nuclear weapon, arguing that such estimates are being manipulated to serve political interests. Beckerman points out that the “threshold” for Iran to obtain a nuclear capability could refer to any of a series of technical steps, such as the production of low-enriched uranium or the development of a nuclear delivery system, and writes that the ambiguity of Iran’s intentions also allows Israeli officials to portray Iran as an imminent threat. Citing US analysts such as David Albright and Gary Sick, Beckerman argues that Iran is seeking a policy of nuclear ambiguity similar to Israeli policy (Forward).
     Joshua Pollack rebuts Beckerman’s article, pointing out that the cited US estimates refer only to Iran’s technical capability to produce a nuclear weapon and in fact state that Iran is unlikely to pursue such a course. Pollack argues that changes in intelligence estimates are better explained by new developments, such as Iran’s suspension of its centrifuge work between 2004 and 2006, and increased insight into the challenges involved in Iran’s nuclear program (Arms Control Wonk).
Forward | Arms Control Wonk

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