“US, Russian analysts: Iran nuclear threat not imminent”

“US, Russian analysts: Iran nuclear threat not imminent”
May 19-21, 2009
     US and Russian technical experts report that Iran is capable of developing a nuclear device within 1-3 years and a warhead in an additional 5 years. However, the report states that while Iran can build IRBMs and ICBMs, these missile systems would be “vulnerable to preemption”, and another 10-15 years would be required to create advanced mobile or silo-based systems.
     The report adds that the European missile defense system proposed by the US is unnecessary and would be ineffective, concluding that the proposal is impeding US-Russia cooperation. The report states such cooperation is necessary to prevent Iran from receiving foreign nuclear assistance that could accelerate the report’s predicted timetable (EastWest Institute).
     Ilan Berman criticizes the report for minimizing the Iranian threat, pointing out that Iran’s subsequent missile test of the 2,000-km range Sejjil-2 contradicts the report’s conclusion that there is no evidence Iran has such capabilities (American Spectator). However, in an interview, Thomas W. Lippman calls the missile test an “incremental step” with no military impact (Council on Foreign Relations).
EastWest Institute | American Spectator | Council on Foreign Relations


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